Iran executes 1,639 in 2025, highest since 1989 amid crackdown

Iran executed 1,639 people in 2025, the highest total since 1989. The Polymarket contract on whether the Iranian regime will fall by June 30 trades at 10.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The executions represent a 68% increase from 2024. This spike follows mass arrests after the January 2026 protests, with many protesters facing death sentences. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market moved up modestly as traders priced in the possibility that escalating repression reflects weakening control rather than strength. The May 31 regime fall market has no active trades. The June 30 contract trades at $85,435 daily in USDC, with $27,572 needed to move the price 5 points, a moderate level of depth.

Why it matters

A 68% year-over-year increase in executions, concentrated around protest-related cases, suggests the regime views internal dissent as a serious enough threat to accept international condemnation. The market’s move from 8% to 10.5% is small in absolute terms but represents a roughly 30% increase in implied probability overnight. At 11¢ per YES share, a correct bet pays 9x, but that return prices in how unlikely traders consider regime collapse within 79 days.

What to watch

Three specific signals could move this market sharply: signs of fractures within the IRGC, any unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or prolonged public absence by Mojtaba Khamenei. Each would suggest the kind of elite-level instability that precedes regime transitions, as opposed to street-level unrest the regime has historically survived.

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