Iran maintains regime stability despite US military pressure

The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has dropped to 9.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 14% a week ago, as Iran’s missile capability and institutional cohesion have held under military pressure.

Market reaction

The Iranian Regime Fall market has moved steadily downward over the past week as reports indicate Iran has absorbed military pressure without fracturing. The probability of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran has similarly dropped, with no active trading markets showing any real expectation of his return.

Why it matters

The market trades at $256,884 in face value daily, but actual USDC traded is $23,487. It takes $32,505 to move the market by 5 points, meaning the current pricing reflects broad agreement on Iran’s stability rather than speculative swings. U.S. and Israeli strategies under Operation Epic Fury have not produced regime change results so far. At 9.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 10.5x return. Betting YES means expecting a major internal fracture within 81 days.

What to watch

IRGC defections, unusual activity from the Assembly of Experts, or Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from public events would signal internal cracks and likely push odds higher.

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