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Iranian mediators propose a 45-day ceasefire as US-Iran tensions persist. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week.
The proposal follows Pakistan’s failed talks, with current odds for a ceasefire by April 15 at 6.5% YES and April 30 at 17.5%. The gap suggests traders doubt a quick resolution. The 45-day plan might affect later dates based on responses.
Liquidity varies: April 7 is thin, needing $12,352 to move 5 points, showing skepticism. April 30 requires $19,925, indicating traders expect a longer timeline. A 2-point spike for April 30 likely stems from the 45-day proposal.
The proposal could shift focus from immediate military actions to diplomacy, but its tier-2 source status limits immediate optimism. At 1.1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, but odds show skepticism. The market watches for substantive talks amid current diplomatic efforts.
Watch for updates from Egypt and Turkey on talks in Doha or Istanbul. Any confirmed meetings or softened rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leaders could change market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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