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Iranian mediators are advocating for a 45-day ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are low at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% last week.
The market’s reaction is muted. The April 7 market barely moved, and April 15 stands at 6.5% YES, down from 8%. The April 30 market shows more optimism at 17.5% YES, down from 24%. May, June, and December markets show increased expectations of a ceasefire, with odds at 36.5%, 51.5%, and 68.5% YES, respectively.
Total USDC traded was $430,773 in the past 24 hours. The May 31 market saw a 10% drop from 46% YES to 36% YES, suggesting traders expect a catalyst before then. It takes $12,367 to move the April 7 market 5 points, allowing a single player to influence it.
The mediators’ push signals potential de-escalation but lacks confirmed acceptance or formal talks. A YES share in the April 30 market at 17.5¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared, offering a 5.7x return, but traders need substantial diplomatic engagement.
Traders should watch for moves by intermediaries like the Sultan of Oman or Qatar. Trump’s statements on sanctions or diplomatic openings will be crucial.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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