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Iran’s Parliament speaker expressed willingness for bilateral diplomacy with neighbors. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Traders doubt an immediate ceasefire. The April 7 market remains stagnant despite Iran’s diplomatic gesture. April 15 odds are slightly better at 6% YES, but skepticism persists. The real interest is in April 30, with 18% YES, suggesting traders see potential de-escalation as a longer-term possibility. Odds jump from 18% to 36% YES between April 30 and May 31, indicating expectations for a late April catalyst.
USDC volume shows the market’s mood. The April 7 market trades $22,948 daily, with $12,352 moving the price 5 points. In contrast, April 30 sees $197,596 daily, reflecting stronger conviction. A 2-point spike to 20% YES at 5:08 PM yesterday underscores interest in late April developments.
Iran’s diplomatic move is promising but traders remain cautious. The statement from a lower-tier source doesn’t outweigh existing tensions. For an 18¢ YES share to be viable by April 30, tangible progress like intermediary involvement or a formal meeting announcement is needed soon.
Watch for statements from Qatar or Oman and any changes in US or Iran rhetoric. If Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth names an envoy or mentions ‘productive talks,’ it would be a significant signal.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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