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Iran and Lebanon launched missile attacks on Israel, leading the US to give Iran a 48-hour deadline for a deal. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
The missile attacks caused a sharp decline in ceasefire odds. The April 15 ceasefire odds fell to 6.5% YES, from 8% yesterday and 22% a week ago. The April 30 market dropped to 17.5% YES, down from 24% a day ago and 40% last week. The US’s aggressive stance and potential escalation have traders doubting a near-term ceasefire.
Trading volume highlights market sentiment. The April 7 market saw $22,948 in USDC traded, with $12,352 needed to move it 5 points. For April 15, $51,692 in USDC traded, requiring $40,093 to move 5 points, showing strong support at current levels. The largest move was a 1-point drop in the April 15 market at 1:49 AM, indicating traders’ skepticism about imminent peace.
The US ultimatum and missile attacks indicate worsening conditions. At 1.1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved — a 90x return. However, this bet assumes an unlikely diplomatic breakthrough within four days.
Watch for diplomatic efforts, such as intervention by Oman or Qatar, or any softening rhetoric from key figures. Statements from Rubio or Hegseth could shift odds.
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