Iran opens Strait of Hormuz for commercial passage amid ceasefire

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial passage under the current ceasefire. Trump’s blockade lift by April 19 sits at 59.5% YES.

The April 19 market moved from 13% to 17.5% YES as traders priced in Iran’s announcement. The May 31 market holds at 82.0% YES, consistent with expectations of eventual de-escalation. With only three days left on the April 19 window, the largest move was a 6-point drop (34% to 28%) at 5:53 PM yesterday.

The market for meetings with Iran by April 30 ticked up slightly to 18.6% YES. Trading volume there is low: $3,879 USDC over the past 24 hours, pointing to cautious sentiment.

Combined USDC traded across these markets was $33,928, with wide liquidity gaps between them. The April 19 sub-market requires only $257 to move 5 points, making it especially reactive to news. The May 31 market needs $3,730 for the same move.

The U.S. stance is the binding constraint here. Araghchi’s announcement changes Iran’s posture, but the blockade is an American decision. For traders, the April 19 market is a binary bet on an imminent breakthrough. Buying YES at 59.5¢ yields a 5.56x return if Trump lifts the blockade before the deadline. That payout requires believing a formal policy reversal happens within three days.

Watch for Trump’s public statements and any Pentagon announcements. A formal U.S. policy shift could reprice both the April 19 and May 31 markets quickly.

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