Iran has refused additional talks with the US over what it calls US pressure tactics. The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 is at 39.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago.
Market reaction
The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market shows traders pricing in a lower probability of a near-term deal. Liquidity is thin: only $599 is needed to move the price 5 points. The Trump Hormuz blockade announcement market sits at 77% YES for a May 31 lift, pricing in skepticism about a quick resolution.
Why it matters
The permanent peace deal market for April 22 is at 25.5% YES, with the April 30 market at 43.5%. The higher odds at later dates show traders expect any breakthrough to take longer, with the biggest jump between April 30 and May 31, pointing to expectations of a catalyst in that window.
The uranium enrichment market trades $23,824 in daily USDC volume. With just $599 required to move the price 5 points, it is susceptible to large order impacts. The peace deal market carries more weight: $711,138 in actual USDC across all sub-markets.
What to watch
Iran’s refusal to negotiate under current conditions lowers the chances of a near-term resolution. A YES share at 39.2¢ pays $1 if Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30, a 2.55x return. Betting on resolution requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within 14 days.
Watch for statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and the Supreme Leader. Any shift in rhetoric or new mediator involvement could move these odds quickly.
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