Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has refused to hold talks with the US in Islamabad. The odds for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting on April 24 are at 0.9% YES, effectively ruling out the possibility.

Market reaction

The April 24 diplomatic meeting market dropped to 0.9% YES. The April 25 market sits at 7.6% YES, while April 26 is at 24.4% YES, up from 9% a day ago. Traders are pricing in April 26 as the most likely date for resumed talks.

Why it matters

In the ceasefire market, odds remain at 100% YES for a ceasefire ending by April 21, consistent with hardening stances on both sides and no visible progress in negotiations.

Combined 24h USDC volume across the diplomatic meeting markets was $1,042, with $70 needed to move the price by 5 points in the April 24 market, indicating a thin order book. The Iranian demands market sits at 14.0% YES, down sharply from 62% a week ago, showing diminishing expectations that Trump will concede to Iran’s oil sanction relief demands this month.

What to watch

For traders, the refusal to meet is a genuine setback, not noise. At 0.9% YES, buying a share in the April 24 meeting pays $1 if resolved, a contrarian bet with high reward but near-zero probability. The April 26 date now carries most of the remaining diplomatic probability, with activity expected to pick up after the current ceasefire expiration.

Watch for announcements from Pakistan or statements from the US State Department, either of which could shift these markets quickly.

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