Iran rejected the temporary ceasefire with the US, insisting on a permanent end to all regional conflicts. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 are at 8% YES.

The April 21 market remains flat at 8%, while April 22 ticked up to 39% YES. The April 30 market jumped to 61.5% YES, suggesting traders price in better chances for a deal on a longer timeline.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume was $699,190. It takes $16,401 to move the April 22 odds 5 points. The largest single move was a 4-point spike in the April 22 market at 12:18 AM, likely driven by a major order or news catalyst.

Iran’s demand for comprehensive terms rather than a temporary pause means negotiations need to cover sanctions relief, security guarantees, or both before any announcement. At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if announced by April 21, a 12.5x return. That bet requires believing US-Iran negotiations can produce results within five days.

Watch for upcoming US-Iran talks in Islamabad. Any sign of softened rhetoric or intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar could move these markets quickly.

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