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Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago and 12% a week ago.
Iran’s decision has hit prediction markets hard. The April 7 market is flat at 1%. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24% a day ago and 40% a week ago. Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution.
Traders expect a longer timeline for any ceasefire. A 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests a potential catalyst. Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz strengthens its position, making a quick resolution unlikely.
The market’s daily trading volume is at $430,773 in USDC across all sub-markets. The order book is deep, with $12,367 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points. This indicates substantial trading activity, not just a few large bets.
Iran’s demands push the probability of a ceasefire further away. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 is a high-risk bet with a 100x payout if resolved positively. But given Iran’s firm stance and lack of diplomatic progress, this seems more like a long shot. Watch for changes in language from key actors like Trump or Hegseth or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, which could shift market dynamics.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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