Iran rejects US ceasefire terms, tensions rise amid ongoing hostilities

The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 5.5% YES, pressured by active hostilities and Iran’s rejection of US-backed terms.

The ceasefire by April 21 market remains low, with traders seeing little chance of resolution within five days. The April 22 market is slightly higher at 30.5%, allowing for a narrow window of diplomatic turnaround. Longer-term markets tell a different story: April 30 has climbed to 45.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago, suggesting traders anticipate possible breakthroughs in the coming weeks.

The market for Iranian military action against Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES, meaning traders treat continued hostilities, including Iran’s ongoing missile and drone attacks, as a certainty.

Combined 24h face value across ceasefire markets is $2.5M, with $699K in actual USDC traded. The April 22 market requires $16,401 to move the price by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent price movement was a 4-point spike in the April 22 market, a noticeable but not overwhelming reaction to new information.

Iran’s refusal of terms and regional tensions make a quick resolution unlikely. A YES share for an April 30 ceasefire at 45.5¢ offers a 2.9x return if resolved, which appeals to traders betting on de-escalation.

Watch for diplomatic signals from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any announcement of talks or shift in rhetoric could move these markets sharply.

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