Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential US diplomacy

Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, hinting at potential diplomacy with the US. The market for Trump lifting the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 82% YES.

The April 19 sub-market rose to 18% YES, up from 10% just days ago. The May 31 market sits higher, suggesting traders expect a breakthrough over the next several weeks rather than in the next few days.

Combined 24-hour trading volume is $33,928. It takes $3,730 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, a sign of strong liquidity. The largest single move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 sub-market after Iran’s announcement.

The Strait reopening is a step toward diplomacy but not a resolution. It opens a window for talks without guaranteeing de-escalation. The April 17 market sits at 8.5% YES, showing skepticism about anything happening that fast. A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade lift by April 17, an 11.8x return. That bet requires belief in an imminent diplomatic deal.

Watch for official statements from the White House or Iranian media. A Trump post or a Pentagon briefing could move these odds sharply.