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Iran’s decision to skip talks with the US in Islamabad has ended plans for ceasefire discussions. The market for a ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The market shows widespread pessimism. April 7 is at 1%. April 15 is at 6%, down from 8%, and April 30 has dropped to 18% from 24%. Longer-term markets like May 31 and June 30 also show declines, indicating skepticism about near-term diplomacy.
Trading shows strong liquidity, with $443,613 in USDC traded across ceasefire markets in 24 hours. Moving the price 5 points requires $13,188 for April 7 and $45,090 for April 15, reflecting varying trader confidence. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop on May 31, highlighting sensitivity to developments.
Iran’s refusal suggests a hardline stance against US proposals. Current odds make ceasefire bets long shots. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, a 100x return unlikely without major diplomatic changes. The market expects continued hostilities, making YES bets high-risk.
Watch for signals like intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, or policy shifts from the US or Iran. CENTCOM’s statements or changes in White House rhetoric could impact markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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