Trump prioritizes military over diplomacy, cooling US-Iran ceasefire hopes

Trump told reporters “don’t rush me” on ending the Iran war, and the market for a US-Iran ceasefire announcement by April 10 has cooled significantly in response.

## Market reaction

Traders are bearish on a swift resolution, with Trump’s focus on military dominance over diplomatic timelines. The market for lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 63% YES, down from 77% a day ago. That 14-point drop suggests traders expect a sustained blockade.

## Why it matters

Current trading volume on the Hormuz blockade market is $32,536, and it takes only $7,404 to move the odds by 5 points, leaving room for larger traders to swing the price. The biggest recorded move was a 3-point drop at 8:37 PM yesterday. The ceasefire market has no face value trading at all, which points to broad skepticism about any imminent announcement.

Trump’s remarks prioritize military objectives over diplomatic solutions. With odds at 63% YES for the Hormuz blockade lift, YES bettors are looking at a 1.6x payout. But Trump’s tone suggests the blockade stays unless Iran capitulates.

## What to watch

Track Trump’s next public appearances and social media posts. Any shift away from his military-first posture could move odds quickly. Iranian diplomatic responses and Pentagon updates on strategy changes are the other key signals.

## API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.