The lack of any indication for a second round of Iran talks points to continued deadlock. The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 is at 3.8% YES, down from 14% yesterday.

With only a bilateral meeting between Pakistan and Iran confirmed, the permanent peace deal by April 30 market has dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 20% the previous day. The absence of broader diplomatic dialogue has also pushed the US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations market to 9.6% YES, meaning traders see a slightly higher chance that no qualifying meeting occurs by June 30.

The US-Iran peace deal market has $1,893,041 in daily face value and $266,919 in actual USDC traded. It would take $30,914 to move the odds by just 5 percentage points, which tells you how much liquidity sits in the book. The largest single move was a 2-point drop at 5:39 PM, consistent with steady bearish pressure.

This deadlock is a setback for any diplomatic resolution before the ceasefire expiration. The market’s move from 20% to 11% in a single day reflects skepticism about Pakistan’s ability to mediate between the entrenched positions of the US and Iran. At 6¢, a YES share for the uranium market pays $1 if Iran halts enrichment by April 30. To justify buying YES, you would need to believe in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough within the next seven days.

Watch for explicit statements from Iran or the US that could signal a change in negotiating stances. The next key signal could come from a direct intervention by Iran’s Supreme Leader or a shift in US policy rhetoric.

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