A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said the US is in a “complete deadlock,” threatening to capture soldiers if war resumes. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sits at 1% YES, with one day left on the contract.

The adviser’s comments coincide with a sharp drop in the likelihood of the US lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. The market for Trump announcing the blockade lift is at 43.5%, down from 60% a day ago. Threats of capturing soldiers and sinking ships also raise the perceived risk of a US invasion of Iran.

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. Rezaei’s threats to capture soldiers and sink ships make a diplomatic resolution harder to price in, and the 16.5-point drop in the Hormuz market in a single day shows how quickly trader sentiment is shifting against a near-term deal.

The ceasefire market has collapsed. Odds fell from 3% yesterday to 1% YES today. Face value traded over the last 24 hours is $720,564, but actual USDC traded is only $17,092, which points to speculative positioning rather than conviction bets. At 43.5¢, a YES share on the Hormuz blockade lift pays $1 if successful, a 2.3x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 32 days.

Watch for CENTCOM statements and changes in US naval deployments. A response from US defense officials to Rezaei’s threats would likely move both the Hormuz and invasion markets.

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