Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz if US blockade continues

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade continues. The odds of Trump announcing the US blockade is lifted by May 31 remain at 90.5% YES, while the chance of a UK warship deployment by April 30 sits at 12% YES.

The market for Trump’s blockade announcement is flat, with the May 31 sub-market showing no change in odds over the last 24 hours. The UK warship deployment market dropped from 12% a week ago to 6% now, as traders price out immediate military escalation.

Trading volume in the blockade market is $33,928 in actual USDC over the last 24 hours, with a 6-point drop in the April 19 sub-market. The UK warships market trades $8,344 in actual USDC, a thin market that a single large order could move significantly.

Iran’s threat to close the Strait, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit, casts doubt on quick de-escalation. The traffic normalization market sits at 50% YES, suggesting traders are split on whether disruption extends past April. A YES share at 50¢ offers a 2x payout if resolved by month’s end.

Watch for diplomatic signals from European talks or direct statements from US and Iranian officials. Trump’s next public comments on the blockade and any Iranian response will likely move these markets.

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