Iran to share defense capabilities with SCO, complicating US nuclear talks

Iran’s deputy defense minister stated the country is willing to share its defensive capabilities with Asian partners, particularly members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market dropped to 1% YES, down from 7% twenty-four hours ago.

The announcement points to a strengthening of military alliances against US interests, making a nuclear deal by end of April less likely. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market has odds at 1% YES. A week ago, the same market was at 68% YES. Face value of trades is about $107,556 daily, but only $7,699 in actual USDC changes hands, indicating cautious participation.

In the Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market, odds are at 0.8% YES, down from 3% a day ago. Traders see little chance of a peace deal in the near term. The June 30 market sits higher at 7.5% YES.

The US-Iran diplomatic meeting location market, resolving by June 30, is at 19.8% YES, suggesting decreased expectations for near-term diplomatic contact.

Despite the $107,556 face value, actual USDC traded in the nuclear deal market is $7,699. It takes $1,550 to move the market 5 points, meaning relatively modest capital could cause sharp price swings.

Iran’s outreach to SCO members adds a new obstacle to US-Iran negotiations. For a YES bet on the nuclear deal to pay off, a dramatic shift would need to happen within six days. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1, but the probability implied by the market makes this a long shot.

Watch for new statements from the White House or Iranian state media. Any official acknowledgment of resumed negotiations could move these markets quickly.

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