Iran and the US have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, blocking all vessel traffic. The likelihood of UK warships passing through by April 30 is now at 7.5% YES.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 has dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 60% just a day ago. The UK warship market sits at 7.5% YES. The market for Trump announcing an end to the blockade by May 31 holds steady at 77.5% YES.
Why it matters
Trading volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is at $32,234 in USDC. The UK warship market, by contrast, needs only $427 to move five points, making it prone to volatility. The largest single move was a four-point drop in the Strait of Hormuz market at 6:46 PM, a quick trader reaction to the blockade news.
The blockade’s persistence suggests a hardening stance from both sides, which lowers the probability of a near-term resolution. For traders considering a YES position, buying at 7.5¢ offers a 18x return if UK warships do pass through. But with only 14 days left, that bet requires expecting rapid de-escalation.
What to watch
US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend. Any shift in diplomatic language or progress in negotiations could move these odds quickly.
