Iranian diplomat wounded in US-Israeli airstrike, ceasefire talks at risk

Iranian diplomat Kamal Kharrazi was gravely wounded in a US-Israeli airstrike aimed at disrupting back-channel talks, pushing odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 11.5% YES, up from 8% just 24 hours ago.

Kharrazi was a key figure in potential ceasefire negotiations, and his removal signals an escalation that makes a quick diplomatic resolution less likely. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES, effectively unchanged since markets had already priced in a ceasefire. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market, however, has seen increased activity as traders reassess regime stability.

Daily volume in the regime fall market is $408,385 (face value) and $36,383 in actual USDC. It takes $22,171 to move the price by five points, which suggests some resilience to small trades. The largest price shift today was a 1-point drop, consistent with cautious trading behavior.

Kharrazi’s targeting exposes how fragile any peace process is and raises questions about the Iranian regime’s ability to maintain control. The odds of regime collapse are still low, but the 3.5-percentage-point jump in 24 hours shows traders are pricing in new risk. A YES share at 11.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 8.7x return.

Watch for changes in IRGC leadership, Assembly of Experts activity, or public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. Any of these could move the regime fall market further.

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