Iranian Revolutionary Guards maintain control despite Israeli efforts

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are maintaining control despite Israeli and other international efforts to destabilize them. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 11.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

Even with U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian leadership, the regime has not buckled. The June 30 market moved from 8% to 11.5%, but that still prices regime collapse as unlikely. The market requires $22,171 to move the price 5 percentage points, a moderate liquidity barrier. The largest price move was a 1-point drop this morning, pointing to stable trading sentiment.

Why it matters

U.S. intelligence reports that the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is severely injured. This has not translated into an immediate regime threat. The negligible market shifts reflect trader confidence that the IRGC’s operational capacity remains intact. The source of the IRGC news is Tier 3, which points toward continuity rather than disruption within Iran’s leadership structure.

What to watch

Buying YES shares at 12¢ offers a 8.3x return if the regime falls by June 30. To justify that bet, traders would need to expect specific destabilizing events like leadership fractures or mass protests, neither of which appears likely right now.

Signals to track: any movement from the Assembly of Experts, signs of public unrest, or a public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei, which could push odds lower.

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