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A former Iranian foreign minister has proposed a peace plan with the US. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Despite the proposal, market reaction was muted. The April 7 market remains at 1% YES, indicating traders see little chance of resolution soon. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday, showing skepticism over a quick breakthrough.
Traders expect more movement in late April to May. The April 30 market is at 18% YES, and the May 31 market is at 36% YES, reflecting higher expectations for developments in this period. The largest jump is between April 30 and May 31, with an 18-point increase, suggesting traders anticipate potential developments by late May.
USDC volume shows confidence levels. The April 7 market sees $24,870/day, indicating low conviction. The April 15 and April 30 markets have more activity, with $50,769/day and $203,674/day respectively. Order book depth requires $49,427 to move April 15 odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity but susceptibility to larger trades.
The proposal lacks official backing and is viewed as a potential fracture within Iran’s stance rather than a significant shift. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return. However, without official support or additional concessions, the odds remain minimal.
Watch for statements from Iranian leadership or US intermediaries like the Sultan of Oman. Changes in rhetoric or new intermediary activity could influence these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.0% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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