Mohammad Javad Zarif has proposed a peace plan involving nuclear curbs between Iran and the US. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 2% YES, down from 8% just 24 hours ago.
Zarif’s proposal emerges amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. The ceasefire markets show slight optimism for later dates. The April 30 market is at 24% YES, while May 31 stands at 46% YES, suggesting traders expect a diplomatic breakthrough within two months. The largest jump in odds occurs between April 30 and May 31.
The market has seen a 24-hour USDC volume at $535,930. The order book depth varies, with $25,832 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 percentage points, indicating smaller players can influence short-term odds. The largest move was a 4-point drop in the May 31 market as traders adjusted positions following Zarif’s proposal.
Zarif’s plan is significant but hasn’t dramatically swayed short-term odds. Traders remain cautious due to Iran’s hardliner stance and Trump’s unpredictability. At 24¢, a YES share in the April 30 ceasefire market pays $1 if resolved, a 4.2x return. Belief in resumed talks or an intermediary breakthrough within four weeks would make this a wise bet.
Watch for signals of intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian hardliners. These would indicate potential shifts in ceasefire odds.
Markets Impacted
