Iran’s Revolutionary Guards tighten control after Khamenei’s death

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have solidified their control following Ayatollah Khamenei’s death, pushing the regime fall by May 31 market down to 3.8% YES from 4% yesterday.

Market reaction

The IRGC’s tightened grip has also moved the Reza Pahlavi entering Iran markets. The June 30 contract sits at 6.5% YES, a minor uptick but still low. The December 31 contract is at 14.5%. The gap between June and December suggests traders expect potential catalysts later in the year rather than soon.

The leadership change by December 31 market is at 40.0% YES, showing skepticism about Mojtaba Khamenei’s staying power even as the IRGC consolidates. The military’s strengthened position makes a quick transition less likely, but long-term instability could still upend the current arrangement.

Why it matters

Trading volume on the regime fall market is relatively thick: $40,827 in actual USDC traded daily and $8,847 needed to move the price 5 points. The Pahlavi entry market is much thinner at $617/day in actual USDC for June 30, making it vulnerable to price swings from large trades.

The IRGC power grab stabilizes the current regime, at least temporarily, decreasing the likelihood of immediate upheaval. At 3.8%, a YES share on regime fall by May 31 pays $1, a 26x return. That’s a long shot unless significant military defections occur or international pressure escalates sharply.

What to watch

Signs of internal dissent within the IRGC or moves by the Assembly of Experts. Either could indicate cracks in the military’s newly consolidated control.

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