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Israel targeted Iranian oil facilities, escalating a conflict that has already reduced global oil flows. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
With four days until the April 7 deadline, traders have nearly dismissed the chance of a ceasefire. The April 7 market trades at 1% YES, reflecting increased hostilities. The April 15 odds dropped to 6.5% from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES, a sharp decline from 24%, suggesting traders expect delays.
With $22,948 in USDC traded daily for the April 7 market, it takes $12,367 to move the odds 5 points. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike for April 30, indicating traders are adjusting expectations rather than reacting to specific news.
The odds are bearish on ceasefire prospects. Israel’s attack marks a direct escalation, while Iran retaliates in the Strait of Hormuz. Targeting energy infrastructure, not just military sites, marks a significant shift, making a ceasefire unlikely soon. A YES share for April 7 at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return — but it would require a diplomatic miracle in four days.
Watch President Trump’s rhetoric and any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. Trump’s next move could escalate or de-escalate the situation. Key signals include confirmed diplomatic talks or a sudden shift in military posturing.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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