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Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Lebanon on April 10 while a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Iran is disputed. The ceasefire by April 15 market sits at
The jump to 100% despite active Israeli military operations in Lebanon suggests traders are pricing in public diplomatic commitments over on-the-ground realities. Daily face value trades exceeded $868K, driving the April 15 market’s move over the past week.
All US-Iran ceasefire sub-markets are priced at 100% YES. The April 30 market also hit 100%, up from 34% seven days ago. There is no spread across dates, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold through at least the end of April.
Actual USDC traded hit $3.23M in the last 24 hours. Liquidity is thick enough at 100% that moving the price would require substantial volume, which confirms firm conviction among participants.
The airstrikes complicate the picture, but traders appear to treat them as isolated actions that won’t derail the broader ceasefire. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, though at current pricing the market treats this as nearly guaranteed.
Watch for statements from the U.S. administration or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. Official confirmations or shifts in diplomatic rhetoric could move these markets off their ceiling.
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