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Iran’s former diplomat Kamal Kharazi has urged a US-Iran deal to end the conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Kharazi’s call comes during a military stalemate, but markets remain skeptical. The April 7 market is low, showing doubt about quick breakthroughs. Longer markets like April 15 have dropped to 6% YES, down from 26%. Traders expect slow diplomatic progress.
Odds jump to 38% YES for a ceasefire between April 30 and May 31, indicating potential catalysts. By December 31, odds are 70% YES, suggesting belief in a long-term resolution.
Trading volume hit $438,085 in USDC over 24 hours, with $18,876 needed to move April 7 odds by 5 points. Low liquidity means small trades can shift prices. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop for April 30, reflecting doubt in short-term peace.
Kharazi’s statement hasn’t significantly impacted markets, as it comes from a non-official source. At 1¢ per YES share for April 7, a $1 payout would require a deal in four days, which traders doubt.
Watch for official diplomatic moves or mediator announcements from Oman or Qatar. Talks or softened rhetoric from US or Iranian leaders could impact markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.4% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 19.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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