Nvidia hits $5.2T market cap, poised to be largest by April 30

NVIDIA’s market cap has reached $5.2 trillion, and the Polymarket contract for NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.8% YES.

The April 30 market is near certainty. The June 30 market sits at 92.0% YES, up from 90% a week ago. Market participants expect NVIDIA to hold its lead, with demand tied to its Blackwell and Rubin processor lines.

The April 30 contract trades $46,745 in USDC daily, and it takes $183,166 to move the price by 5 percentage points. That depth means small speculative trades can’t easily shift the odds.

NVIDIA’s position matters in the context of the U.S.-China AI chip rivalry, where it could influence U.S. export control policy. Trump has hinted at easing trade restrictions, which would benefit NVIDIA’s sales outlook. A YES share for April 30 costs 99.8¢, leaving almost no upside, which tells you how settled this question is among traders.

Watch for U.S.-China trade developments and NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings reports, either of which could affect the June 30 contract where there’s still 8 points of uncertainty.

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