Khamenei dead in US-Israeli strike, Iran leadership change likely by March 31

Iranians in Stockholm rallied to a DJ remix of Trump declaring “Khamenei is dead,” following the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader in US-Israeli airstrikes. Leadership change by March 31 is now highly probable, while the regime fall market by June 30 sits at 9.5% YES.

With Khamenei dead, a new appointment is imminent. The Iran leadership change market reflects the expectation of a swift transition. Sub-market activity for dates beyond March 31 will likely pick up as traders position around further developments. The regime’s promise of retaliation adds volatility, but the immediate question is who fills the leadership vacuum.

On the Iranian regime fall market, odds have dipped to 9.5%, down from 10% yesterday. Traders see regime collapse as less likely than a straightforward leadership swap. Combined daily trade volume is $23,487, with $32,505 needed to shift the price by 5 points, indicating a solid order book.

Khamenei’s death matters, but traders are cautious about betting on full regime collapse. The market appears to price in the IRGC’s influence and the likelihood that a successor consolidates power without the state itself fracturing. At 9.5¢, a YES share would pay 10.5x, which frames the risk-reward for anyone betting on broader upheaval.

Watch the Assembly of Experts and Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances. Signs of a power struggle or internal dissent could move these markets sharply. US or Israeli statements that escalate or de-escalate tensions are the other obvious catalyst.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.