Ledn, the Toronto-based Bitcoin lending firm, is making a bold bet on the future of borrowing against crypto. The company projects that the consumer Bitcoin-backed lending market could balloon from roughly $3 billion today to $1 trillion within the next decade.

That’s a nearly 300x increase. Ledn is backing the claim with survey data, its own origination numbers, and a straightforward thesis: most Bitcoin holders want to borrow against their stash, and almost none of them actually do.

The gap between wanting and doing

A survey of 1,244 Bitcoin holders across the US and Australia, conducted by Protocol Theory, found that 88% of respondents said they would consider taking out a BTC-collateralized loan. Only 14% currently use one.

The barriers aren’t mysterious. Trust, volatility, liquidation risk, and regulatory uncertainty topped the list of concerns among respondents. All four of those got significantly worse after 2022, when Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi imploded in quick succession and took billions in customer funds with them.

Ledn argues it’s one of the few platforms positioned to rebuild that confidence, pointing to its emphasis on transparency, independent custody of collateral, and a laser focus on Bitcoin rather than a grab bag of altcoins.

Ledn’s numbers and the broader lending landscape

Ledn says it originated more than $1 billion in Bitcoin-backed loans in 2025, with Q3 alone accounting for $392 million. Cumulatively, the firm has originated over $10 billion in loans since its founding in 2018.

The company estimates it holds approximately 30% of the global consumer Bitcoin-backed lending market. If the total market really is around $3 billion, that math checks out with its 2025 origination volume.

For broader context, the entire crypto lending market hit an all-time high of $73.6 billion in Q3 2025, according to Galaxy Research. That figure includes institutional lending, DeFi protocols, and everything in between.

Ledn currently offers tiered rates ranging from 9.25% to 11.49% APR. Those rates aren’t exactly cheap compared to traditional home equity lines, but they’re competitive for a product that doesn’t require credit checks or income verification.

The company also secured an investment from Tether in November 2025, a signal that stablecoin issuers see Bitcoin-backed lending as a strategic adjacency worth funding.

Why a $1T market isn’t as crazy as it sounds

Bitcoin’s total market cap currently sits well above $1 trillion. If even a modest percentage of holders decide to borrow against their positions rather than sell, the addressable market scales quickly. The US home equity lending market alone was worth roughly $340 billion in outstanding balances before the 2008 financial crisis. Bitcoin-backed lending is essentially the same concept: borrow against an appreciating asset to avoid a taxable sale event.

The tax angle is particularly relevant. In many jurisdictions, selling Bitcoin triggers capital gains taxes. Borrowing against it does not. For long-term holders sitting on significant unrealized gains, a loan at 10% APR can be cheaper than a 20% or higher capital gains hit.

Celsius alone had over $8 billion in customer assets when it froze withdrawals. Voyager and BlockFi added billions more to the wreckage. Ledn’s pitch centers on being the anti-Celsius: proof-of-reserves attestations, segregated custody, no rehypothecation of client assets.

What this means for investors

Every Bitcoin holder who borrows against their position instead of selling is one less seller in the market. At scale, this reduces the circulating supply available for sale and could put upward pressure on price during periods of demand.

Bitcoin-backed loans come with liquidation thresholds. If Bitcoin’s price drops sharply, borrowers either post additional collateral or get liquidated, which means forced selling into a declining market. In 2022, cascading liquidations across lending platforms amplified Bitcoin’s drawdown.

The competitive landscape includes players like Unchained, Hodl Finance, and various DeFi protocols offering similar products with different risk profiles. Ledn currently claims a 30% market share with $1 billion in annual originations.