German Chancellor Friedrich Merz weighed in on the newly announced US-Iran agreement, saying the deal could stabilize the global economy, provided it also holds in Lebanon.

The agreement, announced between June 14 and 15, includes a ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of a US naval blockade that had choked global energy flows for months. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily.

What the deal actually changes

The conflict between the US and Iran has been running for roughly three to four months, kicking off in late February 2026. During that stretch, military actions disrupted global energy supplies, sent oil prices soaring, and battered European economies.

Oil prices had spiked to around $120 per barrel in early March. Following the announcement of the deal, they fell to approximately $80 per barrel. That’s a 33% decline.

Back on April 27, while the conflict was still raging, Merz publicly criticized US negotiating tactics, pointing to the economic damage the prolonged hostilities were inflicting on Germany.

Markets are already pricing in relief

Beyond the oil price drop, Bitcoin surged above $65,000, hitting two-week highs in the range of $65,500 to $65,800.

What this means for investors

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes one of the most significant supply-side constraints the global energy market has faced in years. If verified steps toward nuclear negotiations follow, as global leaders appear to expect, the path toward broader sanctions relief opens up.

Markets have priced in the announcement. They have not yet priced in successful implementation. Investors would be wise to track the next steps on nuclear negotiations, the status of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and whether Merz’s Lebanon condition proves prophetic or overly cautious.