Meta partners with Amazon for AI chips, eyes competition with Google

Meta’s new deal with Amazon for custom chips has drawn attention to AI model competition. Google having the best AI model by June 30 is priced at ? YES, with 67 days left on the contract.

The partnership gives Meta access to Amazon’s custom silicon for AI workloads, which could narrow the gap with Google in AI model rankings. But it doesn’t directly affect Google’s current model performance. The market for Google’s top model by June 30 hasn’t moved, and there have been no trades in the past 24 hours. Traders aren’t treating this deal as a threat to Google’s position yet.

In the market for the world’s largest company by market cap on June 30, NVIDIA sits at 91.5% YES. The deal could help Amazon by strengthening AWS’s growth trajectory, but the December market for Microsoft and others is at just 0.9% YES, so traders don’t expect a shakeup by year’s end.

The largest-company-by-market-cap market trades $101,970 daily in face value, though only $475 in actual USDC changes hands. The order book is thin: $275 is enough to shift odds by 5 points. Individual large trades could easily move the price.

For traders, this deal matters but hasn’t changed positioning yet. At 8¢, a YES share for NVIDIA to be the largest company by December 31 pays $1 if correct, a 12.5x return. Betting on Amazon overtaking NVIDIA by then means betting on rapid AWS expansion driven partly by deals like this one.

Watch for AWS earnings announcements and new AI chip developments from either Amazon or Meta. These would be the most direct catalysts for repricing in these markets.

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