The European Commission just fired a warning shot at the two biggest names in cloud computing. On November 18, the Commission launched three market investigations under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), targeting Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure for potential gatekeeper designations.

Here’s the thing: neither AWS nor Azure actually meets the DMA’s quantitative thresholds for automatic gatekeeper classification. The Commission is probing them anyway, a signal that Brussels is willing to look beyond the numbers when it believes market power is being exercised in ways that stifle competition.

What the investigation actually covers

The DMA, which has been effective since 2022, was designed to keep digital markets competitive. It hands the Commission power to designate certain large platforms as “gatekeepers,” a label that comes with a long list of obligations around interoperability, data portability, and fair access for competitors.

The investigations will examine the significant roles AWS and Azure play in the cloud sector, with particular focus on anticompetitive practices, lock-in effects, and barriers that make it difficult for smaller competitors to gain traction. The Commission has indicated it expects to reach conclusions within 12 months.

AWS and Azure together command roughly 50-60% of the cloud infrastructure market in key regions, including the EU. Microsoft has said it is ready to contribute to the inquiry. Amazon has not made a similarly public statement.

A pattern of scrutiny on both sides of the Channel

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. The EU probe follows earlier scrutiny from the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), which has been examining whether AWS and Azure warrant a “strategic market status” designation, the UK’s own framework for reining in dominant tech platforms.

The DMA itself has already been deployed against other tech giants. Apple, Google, and Meta have all faced gatekeeper designations under the framework, leading to significant changes in how they operate their platforms within Europe.

What this means for the cloud market and investors

If the Commission ultimately designates AWS and Azure as gatekeepers, the consequences would be substantial. New obligations around interoperability could require both providers to make it easier for customers to port their data and workloads to competing platforms. Data portability requirements would mean customers aren’t trapped by the sheer difficulty of leaving.

For investors watching Amazon and Microsoft, the 12-month investigation timeline means uncertainty will hang over these businesses through at least late 2026. Both companies derive significant revenue from their cloud divisions, with Azure and AWS serving as key profit engines for their respective parent companies.