Carson Block built his reputation blowing up fraudulent Chinese companies. Now the Muddy Waters Capital founder is wrestling with a different kind of disruption: the possibility that artificial intelligence could eliminate up to 15% of high-paying jobs within three years.

That concern is forcing a rethink of the firm’s ambitions in India, where Block had announced plans just last year to launch a dedicated fund. It’s a notable pivot for a shop managing roughly $227 million in assets that was, until recently, looking to expand its geographic footprint.

From India ambitions to AI anxiety

In February 2025, Block publicly discussed exploring an India-specific fund. The strategy would have been either long-only or long-short, a clear departure from Muddy Waters’ bread-and-butter activist short-selling playbook that made it famous in Chinese markets.

By early 2026, Block had moved from bullish to bearish on the S&P 500, driven largely by his growing conviction that AI is about to reshape labor markets in ways most investors aren’t pricing in.

His estimate that advanced AI could cut up to 15% of high-paying jobs within three years carries downstream implications that ripple through the entire economy, from retirement contributions to consumer spending to, ultimately, equity valuations.

In Block’s view, an individual armed with advanced AI tools can now accomplish roughly the same output as eight traditional developers.

What Muddy Waters is doing now

Muddy Waters maintains an active short book alongside various long positions. Among the names Muddy Waters has publicly disclosed positions in are Sportradar and SoFi Technologies, both targets of the firm’s short thesis.

What this means for investors

If high-paying jobs contract meaningfully, you get reduced consumer spending, lower tax revenue, diminished 401(k) contributions, and softer demand across sectors that rely on affluent consumers.

Positions in companies like Sportradar and SoFi suggest Block sees specific valuation disconnects in the market right now, independent of his broader macro thesis. It’s worth noting that no formal reevaluation of the India fund has been confirmed in relation to these concerns.