NATO allies reject Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade plan

NATO allies, including Britain and France, have chosen diplomacy over military action, refusing to join Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. The likelihood of U.S. withdrawal from NATO before April 30 sits at 1.7% YES.

NATO’s refusal to participate adds friction to the alliance and raises the question of U.S. withdrawal. The odds for U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30 have dipped slightly from 2% yesterday. The market is thin, with just $3,217 in actual USDC traded daily and $8,804 needed to move the odds by five points.

NATO’s diplomatic stance has also pushed down the odds of other countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15 to 9.2% YES. The April 30 market is at 21.5%, a 12-point gap that signals traders expect developments in the weeks between those two deadlines.

Combined trading volume across both military action markets is $6,516 in actual USDC. The order book is shallow: only $447 is needed to shift the April 15 odds by five points.

Without NATO involvement, the probability of immediate escalation drops, and that may already be priced in. At 22¢, a YES share on military action by April 30 pays $1 if another country acts against Iran, a 4.5x return. That bet requires belief in a catalyst emerging within 18 days.

Watch for statements from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte or a shift in Trump’s posture towards Europe. Any move towards conciliatory language or renewed NATO solidarity would push these odds lower.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.