NATO is considering ending its annual summits as friction with Trump grows. The odds of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO before 2027 sit at 1.6% YES on Polymarket.

The proposal to scrap annual summits reflects a widening rift between the U.S. and NATO allies, driven by disagreements over defense spending and support for U.S. operations against Iran. The market for a potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO moved from 1% YES just a day ago to its current level. The April 30 sub-market captures the near-term concern, but with resolution only 6 days away, the December 31 sub-market carries more weight for traders.

Trading volume is thin: $163 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. At that level of liquidity, $1,807 could move the odds by 5 percentage points. The odds remain low for a near-term withdrawal, and traders are clearly skeptical that this happens in the next few days.

The potential end of NATO summits points to real U.S.-NATO friction but probably not imminent withdrawal. The source is a tier-3 platform, so the news may not carry much weight on its own. Still, at 1.6¢, buying YES shares pays $1 if the unlikely happens, a 62.5x return, though that bet requires believing in a dramatic shift within days.

Watch for statements from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte or any executive orders from Trump that could move these odds. Rutte’s upcoming decision on the summit format will be a direct signal for traders tracking NATO cohesion.

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