NATO has agreed to modernize its nuclear capabilities, a move that solidifies the alliance’s evolving deterrence posture in response to a security environment that looks nothing like it did a decade ago.

What the modernization actually looks like

At the center of NATO’s nuclear refresh is the US B61-12 gravity bomb, a modernized version of the weapon that has served as the backbone of the alliance’s tactical nuclear deterrent for decades. Production on the B61-12 was expected to wrap up by the end of 2024, with the upgrade extending the bomb’s service life by roughly 20 years.

Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are all transitioning to dual-capable F-35A fighter jets, the stealth aircraft that can carry both conventional and nuclear payloads. Some deliveries have already started, meaning the shift from older platforms is actively underway rather than sitting on a planning whiteboard.

The price tag is staggering

The Congressional Budget Office has projected that US nuclear triad modernization could cost approximately $946 billion over a decade.

NATO’s nuclear policy was formally updated in 2024, building on the 2022 Strategic Concept with an emphasis on three pillars: enhancing credibility, maintaining flexibility, and preserving political control over nuclear decision-making.

Why this matters beyond the military briefing room

The transition to F-35As in countries like Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands also carries industrial and political significance. These are nations that host US nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements, a Cold War-era system where non-nuclear NATO members can deliver US warheads in wartime using their own aircraft and pilots.