Nvidia forecasts $200B CPU market, includes China demand despite export restrictions

Nvidia just told the world it sees a $200 billion total addressable market for CPUs built around agentic AI workloads. And yes, that figure includes demand from China, a country where the US government has spent the better part of three years trying to limit access to exactly the kind of chips Nvidia sells.

The disclosure came during Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 earnings call, where CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress laid out the company’s strategic push into a market long dominated by Intel and AMD. The vehicle for that push is the Vera CPU, launched in March 2026 and already attracting customers like Anthropic and OpenAI.

Record revenue and a new $200B target

Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion, an 85% increase year-over-year. Data center sales alone accounted for $75.2 billion of that total. For Q2, the company guided revenue to $91 billion.

The Vera CPU represents Nvidia’s formal entry into the general-purpose processor market, co-developed alongside its Rubin GPU platform. The chip is designed specifically for orchestrating and managing workflows in agentic AI systems.

As of April 26, 2026, Nvidia disclosed visibility into nearly $20 billion in standalone CPU revenue for the current fiscal year. That is pipeline the company can already see for this year, driven by collaborations with major hyperscalers and system manufacturers.

The China question

Huang confirmed on May 23, 2026 that the $200 billion forecast accounts for Chinese demand despite ongoing US export restrictions that have already crimped Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced AI chips to the region.

A $200 billion TAM that includes a market you cannot fully access is a different proposition than one where every dollar is actually up for grabs. Investors should weigh the difference between addressable and accessible carefully.

What this means for investors

The fact that Anthropic and OpenAI are already Vera customers lends credibility to Nvidia’s market thesis, since those two companies are arguably the most important buyers of AI compute on the planet right now.

The visibility into $20 billion in CPU-specific revenue for the current fiscal year indicates the Vera launch is generating real commercial traction. Export restrictions could tighten further, shrinking the addressable market, and the $200 billion TAM estimate is a projection about the future, not a description of current reality.