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U.S. efforts to locate downed F-15 pilots in Iran and Iran’s response with fighter jets suggest possible escalation. Odds of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 66% YES, up from 55% yesterday.
The April 30 market saw a significant 11-point rise in 24 hours, indicating increased expectations of ground operations. The December 31 market sits at 74.5% YES, showing traders’ belief in U.S. forces entering Iran this year. The March 31 market remains negligible at 0.1% YES.
Trading volume is highest in the April 30 market, with $2,338,269 exchanged daily. It takes $185,131 to shift the odds by 5 points, showing strong trader interest. A 6-point drop at 1:12 AM reflected initial skepticism about immediate troop deployment.
This tactical change, reported by a tier-3 source, suggests potential escalation, but the market remains cautious. At 66¢, a YES share pays $1 if U.S. forces enter Iran by April 30, offering a 51% return. Beyond search missions, watch for troop movements, Pentagon confirmations, or Congressional authorizations.
Look for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon press secretary. Confirmation of special forces operations or ground troop staging could further increase odds.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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