Oil prices are rising with no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz standoff in sight. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is at 0.3% YES, down from 1% a day ago.

The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April shows minimal confidence in reaching this target. Odds have dropped from 1% to 0.3% despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait, which handles up to 25% of global seaborne oil trade. The lack of movement suggests traders are skeptical about a sharp price spike within the next few days.

Trading volume tells a similar story. With just $506 in daily USDC volume, it would take $1,632 to move the market by five points. This is a thin market where a single large order can significantly sway prices. The largest recent move was a drop from 1% to 0.3%, likely from reduced speculative interest.

The bearish sentiment reflects a belief that the standoff alone won’t push WTI anywhere near $160, especially if diplomatic developments or increased output from other producers cap price gains. Current odds imply traders aren’t betting on either immediate resolution or major escalation. That said, a YES share priced at 0.3¢ pays $1 if the improbable occurs, a 333.33x return.

Watch for announcements from Trump or OPEC+ that could shift these odds. A sudden military escalation or unexpected policy change in the Strait would be the most direct catalyst for upward price movement.

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