Oman hosts Iran’s foreign minister amid US-Iran nuclear deal uncertainty

Oman’s sultan met with Iran’s foreign minister in Muscat on Thursday, continuing Oman’s mediation between Washington and Tehran. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES.

Oman has maintained its role as a go-between even after past Iranian attacks on its ports. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market is at 2.6% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago. With six days left, reaching a nuclear agreement without a major breakthrough is unlikely.

The diplomatic meeting markets are settled at 100% YES for both the April and June timeframes. The nuclear deal market tells a different story: odds have dropped from 68% a week ago to 2.6% YES, showing traders have largely written off a quick resolution. The largest recent price move was a 4-point spike, some volatility but the direction is clearly bearish.

The nuclear deal market sees $7,699 in daily USDC volume, with $1,550 needed to move the price five percentage points. That’s moderate liquidity, meaning a single large trade could shift odds meaningfully. The diplomatic meeting market, by contrast, has no recent trading activity.

The Muscat meeting keeps the diplomatic channel open but does nothing concrete toward a nuclear agreement. A YES bet on a nuclear deal by April 30 pays 38.46x, but at 2.6% the market is pricing this as a long shot, not a real possibility. Watch for public statements from Oman or Iran that signal new talks; any confirmation could move these odds.

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