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Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are continuing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, with the US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market holding at
The mediation by these three countries points toward a diplomatic rather than military trajectory, consistent with the odds in the US-Iran ceasefire market. The market for “Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April” remains inactive with no trades, though continued dialogue could move those odds if a concrete diplomatic shift occurs.
Trading volume across these markets is essentially zero, suggesting traders are waiting for concrete developments. The ceasefire market shows a flat term structure at 100% YES across all future dates, pointing to strong consensus around eventual resolution. The “countries conducting military action against Iran” market also shows no significant price movements or trading activity, consistent with the diplomatic direction.
Why it matters: With three mediators actively engaged, the probability of a diplomatic resolution has increased incrementally. Multiple nations at the table give negotiations a broader base, which could affect Trump’s position on Iranian demands. A YES share in the “Trump’s agreement” market could become attractive if talks gain momentum, with a substantial payout if Trump concedes to any demands.
What to watch: Announcements from additional mediators like Saudi Arabia or China, or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iranian leaders. These could change negotiation dynamics and move market odds.
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