Pakistan hosts Iran talks to revive US negotiations amid ceasefire

Pakistani officials are meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Islamabad to revive negotiations with the Trump administration. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sits at 15% YES, steady from yesterday but down from 62% a week ago.

The Islamabad meetings center on restarting US-Iran talks while a fragile ceasefire holds. The ceasefire by April 21 market is at 100% YES, meaning traders see essentially no chance the ceasefire breaks imminently. The next US-Iran meeting location market shows just 5.6% YES for no meeting occurring by June 30, so traders overwhelmingly expect another round of diplomacy.

The “Trump agreeing to Iranian demands” market has volume at $7,777 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes only $119 to move the price 5 percentage points, which means the market is thin. That thinness explains the recent 8-point spike: a single large order can shift the odds significantly.

Pakistan’s mediation has so far kept the ceasefire intact, but the probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands remains low at 15%. At 15¢ a YES share, the market offers a potential 6.67x return if Trump makes concessions in April. The question is whether these Islamabad meetings produce any concrete US-Iran agreements.

Watch for official statements from Islamabad and any shifts in US or Iranian positions ahead of Trump’s envoys’ discussions this Saturday. Movement on either side could reprice these markets quickly.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.