Earn with Nexo
The Pentagon reports advances in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, but Iran remains defiant. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Operation Epic Fury updates indicate ongoing conflict, impacting ceasefire odds. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8% in the last day. April 30 odds fell to 18% YES from 24%, and May 31 saw a significant drop to 36% YES from 46%. Traders doubt a quick resolution as military actions continue.
April 7 trading volume is at $1,439,535/day face value, with $22,948/day in actual USDC. It takes $12,352 to shift odds by 5 points, showing vulnerability to large trades. The April 30 market has $197,596/day in trades, requiring $19,925 for a 5-point move, indicating skepticism about an early ceasefire.
The Pentagon’s statement suggests ongoing conflict, reducing chances for a quick diplomatic solution. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 at 1¢, but a sudden de-escalation seems unlikely.
Watch for actions by Qatar or Oman, or shifts in rhetoric from figures like Trump or Rubio. Secretary Hegseth’s next statement could influence market sentiment.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.