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The Pentagon reports advances in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, but Iran remains defiant. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Operation Epic Fury updates indicate ongoing conflict, impacting ceasefire odds. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 8% in the last day. April 30 odds fell to 18% YES from 24%, and May 31 saw a significant drop to 36% YES from 46%. Traders doubt a quick resolution as military actions continue.
April 7 trading volume is at $1,439,535/day face value, with $22,948/day in actual USDC. It takes $12,352 to shift odds by 5 points, showing vulnerability to large trades. The April 30 market has $197,596/day in trades, requiring $19,925 for a 5-point move, indicating skepticism about an early ceasefire.
The Pentagon’s statement suggests ongoing conflict, reducing chances for a quick diplomatic solution. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 at 1¢, but a sudden de-escalation seems unlikely.
Watch for actions by Qatar or Oman, or shifts in rhetoric from figures like Trump or Rubio. Secretary Hegseth’s next statement could influence market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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