Prediction Markets

Y▲9

3h

Iran tensions, stock bubble fears drive US recession odds by 2026

N▲4

✓ 337m

Bitcoin surpasses $79k amid US-Iran-Israel tensions

Y▲7

2h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin target $80K odds rise

Y▲11

4h

Bitcoin hits $78K after US-Iran ceasefire extension

Y▲12

5h

Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲12

5h

Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination boosts Bitcoin sentiment amid crypto holdings disclosure

Y▲12

✓ 37h

Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise

Y▲8

9h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds

Y▲17

✓ 210h

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization

Y▲24

✓ 512h

Bitcoin surges past $77K as $40M in shorts liquidated amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲35

13h

Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF amid market volatility

Y▲2

✓ 26h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias

N▲1

9h

Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts

Y▲2

11h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy

Y▲2

11h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias: WSJ

N▲1

45m

Iran threatens power plant retaliation if US strikes escalate

N▲1

✓ 23h

US-Iran talks collapse over uranium, ceasefire deal by April 30 unlikely

N▲1

✓ 84h

Iran seizes two vessels, maintains control in Persian Gulf

N▲1

5h

Iran war disrupts global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets

N▲1

✓ 310h

Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical

N▲1

12h

Iran faces oil shut-ins in 15 days amid sanctions, war damage

Y↑

7m

Trump extends Iran ceasefire, market skeptical of formal end by April 30

N↑

✓ 312m

Iran rejects US talks Friday, ceasefire odds fall

Y▲3

✓ 41h

Trump sets April 30 deadline for Iran to propose negotiation plan

Y▲4

✓ 21h

US and Iran near nuclear framework, ceasefire odds remain low

Y▲4

2h

Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices

Y▲3

2h

Iran calls US naval blockade an “act of war,” demands forceful response

N▲1

3h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to diplomacy

Y▲3

3h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcases missiles in parade

N▲1

4h

Trump claims Iran “collapsing financially” amid US naval blockade

Y▲3

4h

Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns

Y▲3

5h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely

N▲1

6h

Iranian President’s praise for Revolutionary Guard dims ceasefire hopes by April 30

Y▲2

✓ 107h

IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension

N▲1

✓ 67h

UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity

N▲1

8h

Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop

Y▲2

✓ 48h

Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N▲1

✓ 29h

Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei

Y▲2

✓ 149h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains

Y▲2

✓ 210h

Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall

Y▲2

✓ 210h

Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

Y▲2

10h

Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries

Y▲2

11h

US-Iran compromise deal seen as inevitable despite market skepticism

Y▲2

✓ 211h

Iran calls US blockade an ‘act of war’ as ceasefire chances dwindle

Y▲2

13h

CIA operatives killed in Mexico amid Iran ceasefire doubts

N▲1

13h

Rumors of coup attempt in Iran highlight factional divides in Tehran

N▲1

✓ 313h

Oil prices dip amid potential US-Iran ceasefire extension

N▲1

14h

White House claims victory in Operation Epic Fury, market skeptical of April 30 end

N↑

8h

Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence

Y↑

14h

Kevin Warsh calls for regime change at Fed, eyes rate cuts