Prediction Markets

N▲2

38m

US-Iran peace talks may resume Friday amid tense ceasefire

Y▲1

✓ 243m

Iran military on high alert as US ceasefire deadline approaches

N▲2

1h

Iran calls US blockade an act of war, impacting ceasefire odds

N▲2

✓ 21h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire, market skeptical of formal end by April 30

N▲2

✓ 51h

Iran rejects US talks Friday, ceasefire odds fall

Y▲1

✓ 42h

Trump sets April 30 deadline for Iran to propose negotiation plan

Y▲2

✓ 23h

US and Iran near nuclear framework, ceasefire odds remain low

Y▲2

3h

Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices

Y▲1

4h

Iran calls US naval blockade an “act of war,” demands forceful response

Y↑

5h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to diplomacy

Y▲1

5h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Tehran showcases missiles in parade

N↑

6h

Trump claims Iran “collapsing financially” amid US naval blockade

Y▲1

6h

Iran maps Persian Gulf undersea cables, raising cyber threat concerns

Y▲1

7h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely

N↑

7h

Iranian President’s praise for Revolutionary Guard dims ceasefire hopes by April 30

N↑

✓ 108h

IRGC gunboat attacks container ship off Oman amid ceasefire extension

Y↑

✓ 68h

UN chief sees Iran–US ceasefire extension as diplomatic opportunity

N↑

9h

Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop

Y↑

✓ 410h

Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

N↑

✓ 210h

Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei

Y↑

✓ 1411h

Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains

N↑

✓ 211h

Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall

N↑

✓ 211h

Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely

Y↑

12h

Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries

Y↑

13h

US-Iran compromise deal seen as inevitable despite market skepticism

N↑

✓ 213h

Iran calls US blockade an ‘act of war’ as ceasefire chances dwindle

N▲2

55m

Bitcoin hits $75K as institutional demand, spot ETFs drive rally

N▲1

1h

Iran strike disrupts helium supply, impacts tech sector stability

Y↑

✓ 42h

Bitcoin surpasses $79k amid US-Iran-Israel tensions

Y▲11

4h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin target $80K odds rise

Y▲15

5h

Bitcoin hits $78K after US-Iran ceasefire extension

Y▲16

7h

Crypto market hit by $415M liquidation wave amid US-Iran tensions

Y▲16

7h

Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination boosts Bitcoin sentiment amid crypto holdings disclosure

Y▲16

✓ 38h

Russia’s State Duma passes crypto bill, Bitcoin demand may rise

Y▲12

11h

BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds

Y▲21

✓ 212h

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization

Y▲28

✓ 514h

Bitcoin surges past $77K as $40M in shorts liquidated amid US-Iran tensions

Y↑

22m

US margin debt drops $32B in March, remains 39% higher year-over-year

Y▲13

4h

Iran tensions, stock bubble fears drive US recession odds by 2026

N↑

2h

Iran threatens power plant retaliation if US strikes escalate

N↑

✓ 25h

US-Iran talks collapse over uranium, ceasefire deal by April 30 unlikely

N↑

✓ 96h

Iran seizes two vessels, maintains control in Persian Gulf

Y↑

7h

Iran war disrupts global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets

Y↑

✓ 312h

Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical

Y↑

13h

Iran faces oil shut-ins in 15 days amid sanctions, war damage

Y↑

✓ 28h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias

Y↑

10h

Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts

N↑

12h

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy

Y↑

13h

US blocks Iraq dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias: WSJ

N↑

10h

Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence