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1d Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
1d Lufthansa to resume Israel flights in June, easing airspace closure concerns
▼ Israel airspace closure
20% (was 31%, ▼11¢ in 1d)
YES ▲9¢
Starmer out timing
2 articles
· 6h ago
47%
▲9¢
✓ 46h Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer amid Labour Party turmoil
✓ 61d Wes Streeting secures MP backing, eyes Labour leadership challenge
NO ▲6¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 18h ago
18%
▼6¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 100% FLAT
✓ 3918h Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor, likely next Fed Chair
NO ▲4¢
S&P 500 predictions for week of may 4, 2026
1 article
· 18h ago
8%
▼4¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 12% FLAT
✓ 518h US alleges secret Chinese arms sales to Iran amid regional tensions
YES ▲3¢
Xi meets with Iranian officials by may 15
2 articles
· 3h ago
10%
▲3¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 24% FLAT
3h Iran’s Hormuz closure threatens global trade, raises hunger crisis fears
✓ 73h Trump, Xi agree to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions
YES ▲3¢
Strait of hormuz ship transit
4 articles
· 4h ago
10%
▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
✓ 44h Ship seized off UAE coast, heading toward Iran amid regional tensions
17h Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
✓ 323h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons passage
NO ▲3¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 8h ago
8%
▼3¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by june 26% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal 11% FLAT
8h Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapons, warns US energy secretary
YES ▲3¢
Trump project freedom restart dates
1 article
· 11h ago
10%
▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 47% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
11h Iran deploys submarines to Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
YES ▲3¢
Warships through strait of hormuz by may 31
1 article
· 17h ago
35%
▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 32% FLAT
17h UK deploys HMS Dragon to Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 6h ago
4%
▼2¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
✓ 36h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $635M amid Middle East tensions
YES ▲2¢
S&P 500 up or down on may 7
1 article
· 19h ago
8%
▲2¢
✓ 219h S&P 500 hits all-time high amid easing geopolitical tensions
YES ▲2¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
· 21h ago
10%
▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic by may 0% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
✓ 721h CENTCOM enforces Hormuz blockade, impacting market expectations
YES ▲2¢
NVIDIA price predictions for may 2026
2 articles
· 22h ago
97%
▲2¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
✓ 422h Nvidia market cap surpasses $5.5T as stock hits record high
✓ 223h Nvidia market cap hits $5.4T despite zero China revenue amid US export controls
NO ▲2¢
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
· 22h ago
14%
▼2¢
⚡ Starmer out timing 48% FLAT
✓ 622h Wes Streeting eyes Labour leadership as Starmer faces potential ouster by 2026
YES ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic by may
1 article
· 1d ago
10%
▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz ship transit 44% FLAT
1d Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic
NO ▲1¢
SpaceX public ticker predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ SpaceX IPO predictions 70% FLAT
3h SpaceX IPO anticipation grows with June 2026 target amid market interest
YES ▲1¢
Solana price predictions for may
1 article
· 8h ago
4%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 14 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 88h Solana drops 5%, Bitcoin below $80K amid US-China tensions over Taiwan
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
· 15h ago
5%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
15h Iran conflict impacts energy markets as Trump heads to China for talks
YES ▲1¢
GameStop acquisition of ebay
1 article
· 18h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 218h GameStop’s $56B bid for eBay rejected, market doubts acquisition success
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by june
1 article
· 19h ago
57%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 56% FLAT
19h Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions above for may 13 100% FLAT
✓ 71d Bitcoin hits $80k, selling pressure eases as short-term losses drop
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high predictions
1 article
· 1d ago
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for may 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 81d Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin services for 50M customers, boosting crypto adoption
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
· 17h ago
17%
▼0¢
✓ 817h Netanyahu’s secret UAE visit amid Iran conflict signals stronger military ties
1d Israeli strikes on Iranian universities escalate conflict, impact peace deal prospects
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
2 articles
· 18h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Next Israeli prime minister 40% FLAT
⚡ Next leader out of power before 2027 0% FLAT
✓ 418h Knesset dissolution vote looms, threatening Netanyahu’s coalition stability
✓ 31d Netanyahu’s coalition moves to dissolve Knesset amid political instability
Likely NO
Cerebras IPO market cap predictions
2 articles
· 20h ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 320h Cerebras Systems sets IPO price, targets $48.8B valuation amid high demand
✓ 221h Arm and SoftBank approach Cerebras for acquisition ahead of IPO
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
2 articles
· 21h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 70% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 2% FLAT
✓ 221h Fed’s Collins warns inflation to persist, no rate cuts expected through 2026
✓ 421h Fed likely to maintain restrictive policy amid inflation concerns, Collins says
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
· 21h ago
5%
▼0¢
21h Iran conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, cutting oil supply by 12.8M bpd
Likely YES
Trump's xi summit attendance
1 article
· 14h ago
8%
✓ 914h Melania Trump confirmed at Trump-Xi summit in China
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump project freedom restart dates 2% FLAT
4h Iran restores missile capabilities, raising US military escalation risks
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors
4 articles
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel withdraws from lebanon 10% FLAT
✓ 24h Israel strikes Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
18h Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Iran, escalating regional conflict
21h Iran conflict raises airspace closure concerns in Middle East
Likely NO
Israel strikes in 2026
1 article
· 8h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel ceasefire extension 4% FLAT
✓ 38h Hezbollah escalates conflict with three attacks on Israeli forces
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for may 8, 2026
2 articles
· 11h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 2% FLAT
11h US embargo on Hormuz Strait impacts Cuba’s energy supply
16h Middle East conflict closes Strait of Hormuz, spikes crude oil prices
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 1d ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
1d US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts oil markets, Turkey hikes inflation forecast
Likely NO
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
· 1d ago
2%
▼0¢
✓ 21d Wall Street inflation fears rise as CPI hits highest since 2022
Likely NO
Iran airspace closure
1 article
· 1d ago
28%
▼0¢
⚡ US invasion of Iran 28% FLAT
✓ 31d Iran threatens US retaliation as Trump considers ending ceasefire
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 1d ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 3% FLAT
✓ 61d Trump criticizes Iran plan, hints at possible US military escalation