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2h Iran rejects US demands, Supreme Leader approves talks amid internal unity
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
2h Iran rejects US demands, Supreme Leader approves talks amid internal unity
▲ Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
54% (was 0%, ▲54¢ in 2h)
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire: 0% FLAT
YES ▲54¢
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
54%
▲54¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
2h 
NO ▲5¢
Military actions against Iran
1 article
Developing
35%
▼5¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 38% FLAT
1h US ships 6,500 tons of munitions to Israel amid Iran tensions
NO ▲4¢
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼4¢
3h Iran’s president, parliament seek to dismiss FM Araghchi amid IRGC influence
NO ▲1¢
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼1¢
3h FCC review of ABC licenses intensifies pressure on Jimmy Kimmel
NO ▲1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
4h Trump exits Iran nuclear pact, revives tensions with uranium enrichment
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
10m US-Iran conflict fuels WTI crude oil price hike expectations for May 2026
35m US redefines Bitcoin as national security asset amid global tensions
2h Trump briefed on Iran military options, impacting Bitcoin, oil markets
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
14m Trump considers pulling US troops from Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
4 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
16m Indian Oil raises LPG, jet fuel prices amid West Asia conflict
1h US-Venezuela oil talks may boost supply, pressure crude prices
2h UAE exits OPEC, crude oil prices expected to rise amid supply concerns
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
21m US considers executive action to reintegrate Anthropic AI by April 2026
2h White House pushes for AI cyber defense amid Anthropic market surge
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
16%
▼0¢
✓ 222m Iran-US standoff disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, energy prices may hit $150
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
23m Microsoft boosts 2026 capital spending to $190B amid AI demand
3h US tech giants report strong Q1 earnings driven by AI, cloud investments
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
29m Pete Hegseth defends Iran military campaign amid $1.5T budget request
2h Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
44m Israel strikes Hezbollah command HQ, military buildings in Lebanon
3h Israeli shelling on Labour Day escalates tensions in Lebanon
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
46m Russia halts Kazakh oil deliveries, escalating tensions with Ukraine
2h Ukraine drone edge complicates ceasefire prospects by June 2026
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
47m Bennett and Lapid form “Together” alliance to challenge Netanyahu in elections
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
53m Iran-US peace talks begin with Khamenei’s approval amid regime stability
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
1h Ethereum ETF outflows hit $23.6M amid price uncertainty
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h ECB holds rates amid Middle East tensions, inflation concerns persist
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Iran to submit revised peace proposal after Trump rejection: CNN
1h Iran declares nuclear file closed, demands $270B reparations amid tensions
4h US official: Iran war truce ‘terminated’ hostilities for war powers deadline
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
1h US Navy blockade exposes gaps in Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy
1h White House considers extending Iran blockade, impacting WTI crude prices
1h Iranian tankers evade US blockade, deliver 4M barrels to Asia
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
Developing
77%
▼0¢
1h Apple shares rise 2.6% premarket on strong Q3 sales guidance
✓ 23h Apple sales success challenges Nvidia’s market cap lead by June 30
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Bitcoin upside capped by $82K sell wall after UAE exits OPEC
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
1h Bitcoin holds above $77,000 amid ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Ukraine, Norway to produce drones amid Russia conflict escalation
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
2h Iran-US conflict escalates, oil hits $125, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h Jerome Powell to remain on Fed board, Warsh expected as next chair
Likely NO
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
2h Warsh nomination as Fed Chair may lead to leadership change by May 31
Likely NO
Solana price in april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Solana sees $40M net inflows in April 2026 amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
3h $6.8B in Bitcoin long positions at risk of liquidation amid market downturn
Likely NO
Starmer out timing
1 article
· 3h ago
41%
▼0¢
3h Labour’s London support declines, challenging Starmer’s leadership ahead of 2026 elections
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 2
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
3h Bitcoin expected to stay above $68K despite geopolitical tensions by May 2
4h ECB’s Muller signals potential rate hike amid Middle East energy pressures
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Brazil cuts Bolsonaro’s jail term, boosting conservative election prospects
Likely NO
US GDP growth Q1 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h US GDP grows 2% in Q1 2026 despite geopolitical tensions