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✓ 22h UAE distrusts Iran over Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 22h UAE distrusts Iran over Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
▼ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
31% (was 37%, ▼6¢ in 2h)
NO ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
8%
▼1¢
✓ 23h Pete Hegseth defends Iran military campaign amid $1.5T budget request
5h Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
YES ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▲1¢
5h Jerome Powell to remain on Fed board, Warsh expected as next chair
YES ▲1¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 1% FLAT
5h Warsh nomination as Fed Chair may lead to leadership change by May 31
NO ▲1¢
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns
1 article
· 5h ago
6%
▼1¢
5h FCC review of ABC licenses intensifies pressure on Jimmy Kimmel
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
16m Ukraine to escalate drone attacks amid ongoing conflict with Russia
4h Ukraine, Norway to produce drones amid Russia conflict escalation
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
2 articles
Developing
77%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 66% FLAT
28m Pentagon expands AI use with Nvidia, boosting market cap prospects
✓ 231m Pentagon expands AI contracts with Nvidia, ends Anthropic deal
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
52m US-Iran tensions drive oil prices above $110, impacting Fed rate cut odds
Likely NO
Trump's acquisition of greenland
1 article
Developing
81%
▼0¢
1h Trump’s Greenland acquisition unlikely amid US-Denmark tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, US maintains blockade amid oil price surge
✓ 23h Iran-US standoff disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, energy prices may hit $150
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
✓ 22h IDF restores security guidelines amid Lebanon border tensions
3h Israel strikes Hezbollah command HQ, military buildings in Lebanon
5h Israeli shelling on Labour Day escalates tensions in Lebanon
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ James comey arrest timeline 100% FLAT
2h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump, arrest seen as imminent
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
2h Solana leads in quantum security with NIST-approved signatures, ahead of Ethereum
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
2 articles
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
2h Iran accuses US of strikes during talks, military tensions rise
5h Iran rejects US demands, Supreme Leader approves talks amid internal unity
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
3 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
2h US-Iran conflict fuels WTI crude oil price hike expectations for May 2026
3h US redefines Bitcoin as national security asset amid global tensions
5h Trump briefed on Iran military options, impacting Bitcoin, oil markets
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
3h Trump considers pulling US troops from Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Indian Oil raises LPG, jet fuel prices amid West Asia conflict
3h US-Venezuela oil talks may boost supply, pressure crude prices
5h UAE exits OPEC, crude oil prices expected to rise amid supply concerns
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h US considers executive action to reintegrate Anthropic AI by April 2026
5h White House pushes for AI cyber defense amid Anthropic market surge
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Microsoft boosts 2026 capital spending to $190B amid AI demand
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
· 3h ago
12%
▼0¢
3h Russia halts Kazakh oil deliveries, escalating tensions with Ukraine
5h Ukraine drone edge complicates ceasefire prospects by June 2026
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
3h Bennett and Lapid form “Together” alliance to challenge Netanyahu in elections
Likely YES
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
Developing
0%
1h US Navy adopts AI for mine detection in Strait of Hormuz, aims for faster clearance
3h US ships 6,500 tons of munitions to Israel amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
3h Iran-US peace talks begin with Khamenei’s approval amid regime stability
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 30
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
3h Ethereum ETF outflows hit $23.6M amid price uncertainty
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h ECB holds rates amid Middle East tensions, inflation concerns persist
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
4h Iran to submit revised peace proposal after Trump rejection: CNN
4h Iran declares nuclear file closed, demands $270B reparations amid tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
3 articles
· 4h ago
39%
▼0¢
4h US Navy blockade exposes gaps in Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy
4h White House considers extending Iran blockade, impacting WTI crude prices
4h Iranian tankers evade US blockade, deliver 4M barrels to Asia
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
77%
▼0¢
4h Apple shares rise 2.6% premarket on strong Q3 sales guidance
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
✓ 24h Bitcoin upside capped by $82K sell wall after UAE exits OPEC
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
4h Bitcoin holds above $77,000 amid ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
5h Iran-US conflict escalates, oil hits $125, impacting Fed rate cut outlook
Likely NO
Solana price in april
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Solana sees $40M net inflows in April 2026 amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Bitcoin price april 27-may 3
1 article
· 6h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for april 30 0% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
6h $6.8B in Bitcoin long positions at risk of liquidation amid market downturn