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✓ 23h UAE distrusts Iran over Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
✓ 23h UAE distrusts Iran over Hormuz, complicates US-Iran peace efforts
▼ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting
27% (was 37%, ▼10¢ in 3h)
NO ▲2¢
Crude oil price predictions by june
3 articles
Developing
13%
▼2¢
✓ 31h ExxonMobil output hit by 15% due to Strait of Hormuz closure
4h Indian Oil raises LPG, jet fuel prices amid West Asia conflict
5h US-Venezuela oil talks may boost supply, pressure crude prices
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate cut timing
1 article
Developing
4%
▼1¢
31m Fed’s Hammack opposes rate cut, aligns with hawkish regional sentiment
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price targets
3 articles
Developing
4%
▼1¢
⚡ ECB interest rates april 2026 100% FLAT
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
39m Iran conflict drives oil to $115, central banks adopt hawkish stance
59m Fed dissent dampens June rate cut expectations, Bitcoin $80K April odds low
5h Bitcoin holds above $77,000 amid ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Largest company by end of april
2 articles
Developing
78%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 66% FLAT
1h Pentagon expands AI use with Nvidia, boosting market cap prospects
✓ 41h Pentagon expands AI contracts with Nvidia, ends Anthropic deal
YES ▲1¢
US withdrawal from NATO timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▲1¢
4h Trump considers pulling US troops from Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
YES ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
78%
▲1¢
5h Apple shares rise 2.6% premarket on strong Q3 sales guidance
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
4%
⚡ Fed rate cut timing 4% FLAT
1m Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid dissenting vote for cut
Likely NO
James comey sentenced to prison in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ James comey arrest timeline 100% FLAT
3h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump, arrest seen as imminent
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
3h Solana leads in quantum security with NIST-approved signatures, ahead of Ethereum
Likely NO
Bitcoin above on april 30
2 articles
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price above on may 1 100% FLAT
4h US-Iran conflict fuels WTI crude oil price hike expectations for May 2026
4h US redefines Bitcoin as national security asset amid global tensions
Likely NO
Anthropic mythos provision to US government
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h US considers executive action to reintegrate Anthropic AI by April 2026
Likely NO
Largest company by december 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Microsoft boosts 2026 capital spending to $190B amid AI demand
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
12%
▼0¢
4h Russia halts Kazakh oil deliveries, escalating tensions with Ukraine
Likely NO
Next Israeli prime minister
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
4h Bennett and Lapid form “Together” alliance to challenge Netanyahu in elections
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
4h Iran-US peace talks begin with Khamenei’s approval amid regime stability
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 30
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
⚡ Ethereum price in april 0% FLAT
5h Ethereum ETF outflows hit $23.6M amid price uncertainty
Likely NO
ECB interest rates april 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
5h ECB holds rates amid Middle East tensions, inflation concerns persist
Likely YES
Military actions against Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
0%
2h US Navy adopts AI for mine detection in Strait of Hormuz, aims for faster clearance
4h US ships 6,500 tons of munitions to Israel amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
2 articles
Developing
42%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 0% FLAT
5m Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, vows to maintain Hormuz blockade
5h US Navy blockade exposes gaps in Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy
Likely NO
Trump out as president timeline
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
6m White House confirms third assassination attempt on Trump at press dinner
Likely NO
Israel withdraws from lebanon
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
10m IDF captures Bint Jbeil, escalating tensions amid Lebanon withdrawal talks
✓ 23h IDF restores security guidelines amid Lebanon border tensions
4h Israel strikes Hezbollah command HQ, military buildings in Lebanon
Likely NO
Dissent at april Fed meeting
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
22m Kashkari warns oil shock could lead to Fed rate hikes amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
26m US military operations in Iran hit 60-day mark, raising escalation concerns
✓ 24h Pete Hegseth defends Iran military campaign amid $1.5T budget request
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
33m Israeli airstrikes on Iran threaten oil supply, prices may hit $150
✓ 448m Iran sends peace proposal to US, WTI crude futures fall
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action 100% FLAT
✓ 449m Iran responds to US deal amendments via Pakistani mediators: Axios
56m Iran responds to US amendments amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations
5h Iran to submit revised peace proposal after Trump rejection: CNN
Likely NO
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting
3 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
51m Iran’s supreme leader rejects concessions as US weighs military options
✓ 51h Iran submits new proposal via Pakistan to mediate US standoff
3h Iran accuses US of strikes during talks, military tensions rise
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
1h Kashkari dissent highlights inflation risks from Iran conflict, complicates Fed policy
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Ukraine to escalate drone attacks amid ongoing conflict with Russia
Likely NO
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h US-Iran tensions drive oil prices above $110, impacting Fed rate cut odds
Likely NO
Trump's acquisition of greenland
1 article
· 3h ago
81%
▼0¢
3h Trump’s Greenland acquisition unlikely amid US-Denmark tensions
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil price predictions by june 100% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, US maintains blockade amid oil price surge
✓ 24h Iran-US standoff disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, energy prices may hit $150
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 30
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 0% FLAT
✓ 25h Bitcoin upside capped by $82K sell wall after UAE exits OPEC